Southern Hemisphere harvests complete amid static markets
The major bulk wine markets of the world were quiet through April into early May, with increased input costs and economic uncertainty generated by the Iran war exacerbating the pre-existing – and now longstanding – buyer hesitancy. Most markets have reported seeing significant price rises on at least one of fuel, transportation and fertiliser, while some countries have already registered notable increases in annual inflation levels and, in turn, interest rates.
Amid this, the Southern Hemisphere’s 2026 harvests have finished and the new wines are starting to be sampled. This month’s Global Market Report relays the latest crop size estimates and vintage attributes. Of primary concern to producers, some of them possessing significant carryover inventory, is the market demand that awaits them in the next few weeks as their wines become available and pricing is established, as it will be a gauge of how active – or not – the 2026-vintage buying campaign may be. This month’s report sets out what activity has occurred.
The International Organisation of Vine & Wine (OIV), in its just-published ‘State of the World Wine Sector in 2025’ report, estimated last year’s global wine production at 227 million hectolitres, only 0.6% above a 2024 output that was the lowest recorded since at least 1961. The lighter crops of recent years have helped right-size some current-vintage inventories, in turn upping some grape and/or bulk wine prices over the past 12 months.
However, suppliers must bear in mind that global wine consumption continues to decline: the OIV also estimated that consumption in 2025 was down 2.7% versus 2024 and 14% smaller than in 2018. What have traditionally been the ten leading wine-drinking countries all experienced falls in 2025, with Portugal (+5.6%), a rare good-news market, breaking into the top ten ahead of Australia (-2.2%) and China (-13%). Pressure from retailers for supply is therefore weak. Furthermore, given their own cost pressures and their knowledge that wine stocks still outstrip demand, retailers/distributors are more price-sensitive than ever before. As this month’s Spain page states: “Suppliers will need to be mindful that, in a globally interconnected marketplace, buyers have alternative options and are becoming well-practised at using them.”
Excess supply has enabled some increased experimentation as the industry strives to better meet consumer tastes. This month’s report, for example, makes mention of the growth in low/no-alcohol wines and wine-based RTDs. However, the low/no category is growing from a very low level, while wine-based RTDs currently represent only a small fraction of an RTD category dominated by spirits and malt.
As well as taste, the industry must strive to meet consumer price preferences. In some markets consumers are currently getting an enhanced deal, with premium wines having been redirected into bulk and – at retail – the presence of price-aggressive private-label wines and discounted brands. These lower shelf prices, combined with reduced volumes, are potentially unsustainable for many wineries and – ultimately – growers. Delayed payments and vineyard mothballing/removals are currently widespread.
Read the full Ciatti Global Market Report for April
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