If you came to the 2026 Wine Sales Symposium hoping for an economist to deliver good news about wine consumption, Chris Bitter wasn't your guy.

Bitter, a wine economist with Terrain - the economic and market research arm of American AgCredit - opened his session with a prediction attendees didn't want to hear: wine consumption is going to continue declining for the foreseeable future.

But he also delivered a more hopeful message. The premium and luxury segments are holding up considerably better than the broader market, and wineries willing to adapt to a changing consumer still have real opportunities to win.

A Smaller Share of a Smaller Pie

Bitter walked attendees through the two challenges defining the current moment. First, fewer Americans are drinking, and those who do drink are drinking less. Second, wine is losing share to other categories within alcohol itself. The result, in his words, is "a smaller share of a smaller pie."

The decline isn't temporary. After decades of growth, wine sales have been falling steadily since the post-pandemic peak across every major channel: off-premise, on-premise, DTC, and especially exports.

Where the Bright Spots Are

Not all corners of the market are dim. Bitter highlighted several segments performing notably better than the overall trend, including premium price tiers, certain varietals and styles, smaller package formats, and two categories posting double-digit growth that surprised much of the room.

He also took attendees through what's happening inside the DTC channel - where visitation, club membership, and acquisition rates are all under pressure, but one specific sub-channel is quietly growing nearly 20%.

Economic Headwinds Meet Structural Ones

Part of the slump, Bitter explained, is cyclical, tied to inflation, uncertainty, and consumer sentiment that recently touched its lowest level on record. But part of it is structural: demographic shifts, health and wellness movements, GLP-1 drugs, new competing categories, and a generation spending less time socializing in person.

Some of these factors, he noted, are accelerating rather than fading.

What Wineries Can Do About It

Bitter closed with three strategic imperatives and several specific opportunity areas that wineries should focus on right now, covering competitive positioning, value, labeling, the tasting room experience, and an underused approach to acquiring new customers when foot traffic is down.

Watch the Full Session

Bitter's complete analysis includes the specific data, segments, and DTC strategies he sees as most actionable for wineries today.

🎥 Access this session, along with all 14 recorded Wine Sales Symposium presentations, here: https://winesalessymposium.com/buy-video-access/