El Niño accelerates timetables; bulk prices under pressure

The El Niño climate phenomenon has continued to accelerate growing and picking timetables in both hemispheres, with the Northern Hemisphere’s 2026 harvests all but over as September turned to October, some weeks early, and vegetative growth in the Southern Hemisphere – at least in Chile and South Africa – in an advanced state following milder-than-normal winters. Southern Hemisphere producers are braced for a growing season influenced significantly by El Niño, including wet conditions in Argentina and Chile; at a time of reduced financial means, many growers feel extra vulnerable to whatever Mother Nature may throw.

This month’s Global Market Report provides the latest on the 2026 harvests in Europe and California – size, quality, and new-vintage pricing – as well as the springtime vineyard conditions south of the equator. Activity on the bulk market, meanwhile, remains hesitant, incremental, and price-sensitive. Owing to sluggish wine consumption globally, high inflation, elevated interest rates, and some significant carryover, buying has been taking place sluggishly in both hemispheres, placing downward pressure on bulk-wine prices. Paid subscribers can see the latest international prices in our Global Pricing Grid here.

Some generous inventories and softening prices allow buyers to harness highly attractive bulk-wine opportunities and potentially lock in favourable multi-year contracts. There is plenty of supply scope with which to attract new consumers with – to quote this month’s France page – “well-made, easy-to-understand products at good price-quality ratios, appealing to younger consumers who prioritise taste and trendiness over traditional appellation distinctions”.

Suppliers may have to look harder than buyers for opportunities in the current market context, but there are some signs that successive years of generally lighter-than-average harvests around the world – due to vineyard removals, reined-in picking, and Mother Nature – together with some internal rebalancing of winery inventories, is creating some cautious momentum on some specific varieties/varietals, some of the time.

Read the full Ciatti Global Market Report for October

With its global reach and local connections, Ciatti’s experienced broker team is on hand to bring suppliers and buyers together in mutually beneficial partnerships. Don’t hesitate to reach out to us via info@ciatti.com or by clicking here for more contacts.