October has arrived but the usual clarity it gives the Northern Hemisphere harvest picture is lacking this year due to diverse fortunes in Europe – sometimes between even neighbouring vineyards – and, in California, a lag in the growing season by up to four weeks. It has been a year of noticeably unusual and unpredictable weather and while the subject of “climate change” comes freighted with politics, it certainly does feel like the weather is currently out of kilter in both hemispheres. 

Take the freak midwinter heatwaves in Argentina and Chile this year, now echoed by the unseasonably warm autumns in northern Europe. It seems that winters are generally drier, springs wetter, summers hotter (sometimes alternating between heatwaves and deluges) and autumns milder. All this can take a toll on vines and grapes, and protecting them requires investment, not something that comes easy for growers and wineries in the current oversupply and slow sales environment when cashflow is limited, particularly with higher interest rates and inflationary pressure on input costs. Some vineyards may start to looks a little frayed at the edges; some plots may get pulled out and turned to something more financially viable. 

Spain’s bulk wine market has been receiving robust European demand as it has become clearer that Italy is on course for one of its shortest crops of the past 50 years (largely due to the aforementioned heatwave/deluge dynamic), and pricing has risen slightly. Beyond this, bulk markets around the world remain quiet, to varying extents, and pricing in general is trending softer, particularly on reds. The Languedoc’s crop is estimated to be down from the five-year average by 10%, but France overall, and Spain, are not expected to experience market-moving crop shortfalls, especially considering carryover levels. California’s crop remains an enigma, although the consensus seems to be that it has sized up through September; again, carryover is significant on some varietals. 

In the Southern Hemisphere, international demand for South Africa’s bulk wines ticked up in September after a very quiet June-August; the country can still boast some of the most competitive Chardonnay and Sauvignon Blanc pricing in the world. The markets in Chile, Australia and New Zealand have been sluggish. Argentina’s next president – likely either Javier Milei or Patricia Bullrich – is set to implement a serious peso devaluation when they take office in December, releasing onto the global market a significant supply of more competitivelypriced bulk wines after a year in which Argentina’s domestic and export sales have declined significantly. 

For now, many buyers are foregoing activity to keep a watchful eye on the important final-quarter sales period. While inflation and interest rate levels are – generally – moving in the right direction in key markets, consumer confidence continues to fluctuate at low levels and, as yet, shows little sign of powering strong festive-season sales that might work through retailer inventories. Meanwhile, many bulk offers represent an excellent price-quality opportunity, sometimes involving items that come along only rarely. The Ciatti team stands ready to help match up buyers with suppliers: don’t hesitate to get in touch. In the meantime, read on for detailed updates on each market.

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Bulk Wine Grape Market