Good early interest in the Southern Hemisphere's 2026 wines
The Southern Hemisphere’s 2026 vintages have come onto what feel like fairly active bulk markets, although a great majority of activity consists of enquiries into, and sampling of, the new wines. While it remains questionable how many of these discussions will translate into transactions – and many of those that do are likely to be for smaller volumes than in the past – the very inquisitive reception for the new wines does support the view that current-vintage supplies are in a healthier supply-demand balance than previous vintages, some of which still languish on the market, inflating overall inventory numbers.
As this month’s France page states: “With retail and HoReCa [Hotels-Restaurants-Catering] sales proceeding sluggishly, buyers have the time to wait for the newest vintage and are extra mindful of increasingly older wines accumulating in cellars and on retail shelves, which in turn can further deter consumers.” The decent early enquiry levels into the 2026 vintage are also a reminder that wine programmes are not performing universally poorly – with some even experiencing healthy sales growth – and that new lines are still being introduced.
This month’s South Africa page is representative of the Southern Hemisphere supplier countries in stating that “interest levels towards the end of May into early June were noticeably higher than at the equivalent stage of the previous campaign”. Softer pricing – sometimes falling enough between vintages to have offset recent increases in fuel and freight prices – has definitely helped interest levels at a time when buyers are facing acute price sensitivity from an ultra-competitive supermarket sector fighting it out over stagnant consumer spending. BMO Bank, in its recently-published and highly insightful US Wine Market Report 2026 , stated that “people of all ages are drinking less alcohol in general, but the higher cost of wine relative to other beverage types is putting it at a disadvantage” – a statement that, of course, applies to nearly all major consumption markets, not just the US.
Meanwhile, the Northern Hemisphere’s bulk markets are comparatively slower, as buyers and suppliers alike turn their attention to the coming 2026 harvests. Many 2025-vintage wine stocks have been drawn down, while suppliers are pushing to clear those stocks that have not been. Western Europe suffered an unusually early heatwave through the final week of May, driven by a “heat dome” in which warm air travelled up from northern Africa and became trapped under a high-pressure system. France and multiple regions of Spain recorded their hottest ever May days – as did neighbouring countries Portugal, the UK and Ireland – and this month’s report assesses the latest conditions in the vineyards.
For detailed intel on vineyard conditions in the Northern Hemisphere, pricing and availability on the new 2026 wines in the Southern Hemisphere, and bulk activity in each market, click on the button below to go through to the full Ciatti Global Market Report for June . The Global Pricing Grid, with all the latest pricing tables, will arrive into your email inbox soon.
Read the full Ciatti Global Market Report for June
With its global reach and local connections, Ciatti’s experienced broker team is on hand to bring suppliers and buyers together in mutually beneficial partnerships. Don’t hesitate to reach out to us via info@ciatti.com or by clicking here for more contacts.
Potential early harvest: How is the market responding?
With vineyard development across California continuing well ahead of a normal timetable, harvest 2026 now feels just around the corner: This month’s California Report details how suppliers and buyers of bulk wine and grapes have been responding. Many growers are starting to consider calling a halt to farming their uncontracted vineyards, if they have not done so already, which could curb desirable grape availability for those buyers planning a late-season purchase.
While April and May temperatures were mainly within a normal range, precipitation levels swung from above average in April to below in May, before the Coast received some heavy rain events toward the end of the month. April-May rainfall has led to some reports of shatter and mildew, the latter of especial concern given the number of vineyards already mothballed. This month’s report assesses vineyard conditions by region and considers what kind of harvest size can be expected.
Buyers seeking current-vintage wines must be mindful of the limited size of the 2025 harvest and – very likely – the coming 2026 harvest too. The California Report this month continues its series drilling down into the bulk inventory listed with Ciatti, first by vintage year and then by location. Some case-good programs are showing improved sale performances and this month’s SipSource update identifies some areas of positivity in US wholesaler depletions. However, overall sales stabilization remains elusive, and bulk inventory is still significant: Suppliers hesitating to accept offers are urged to “ruthlessly interrogate their options.”
The recently-published BMO Wine Market Report 2026 provided a sobering insight into wine sales in the US, stating that, in less than a decade, “the amount of wine entering the US market from California has declined nearly 25%”. It quoted a WineBusiness Analytics survey of US wineries conducted earlier this year that found only 25% were not holding excess inventory. The wine industry in California, as around the world, is experiencing acute credit and cashflow challenges and – until case-good sales stabilize – reductions in vineyard area and the number of operators will continue.
Read the full Ciatti California Report for June
Bulk wine suppliers are invited to list their 2025 wines with us and send in samples, and ensure they have their 2024 wines on our inventory list, so we are able to harness buyer interest as it arises.
Grape growers are recommended to inform us of the grapes they may have available next year, in 2026, so we can work to match-up suppliers with buyers.
Please contact Mark (+1 415 630 2548 / mark@ciatti.com ), Michael (+1 415 630 2541 / michael@ciatti.com ) or the Ciatti Customer Account Team ( cargroup@ciatti.com ).
The Ciatti Company is pleased to announce the appointment of Carter Collins to its California broker team. Carter, who is General Manager at Viticultural Management Inc., will focus on the Central Coast.
Carter said: “I’m thrilled to join the Ciatti Company as a broker, with a primary focus on grapes, bulk wine, and wine concentrate on the Central Coast. This opportunity is especially meaningful to me. Growing up, I had multiple basketball teams named the ‘Ciatti Crushers’ – all because my dad was a broker with Ciatti. It feels full-circle to now join the team myself. I’m looking forward to working with the Ciatti team and building on our strong relationships with wine and grape clients across the region.”
“We’re delighted to have Carter on board,” said Ciatti Partner and President Greg Livengood. “Carter brings to the team his wealth of experience in the Californian wine industry in general and his deep knowledge of the Central Coast in particular. Having worked alongside his father Dennis, who was a valued member of our team and a mentor to me, it is truly special to once again welcome the Collins family to Ciatti.”
You can contact Carter on +1 805 610-6510 and carter@ciatti.com
Southern Hemisphere harvests complete amid static markets
The major bulk wine markets of the world were quiet through April into early May, with increased input costs and economic uncertainty generated by the Iran war exacerbating the pre-existing – and now longstanding – buyer hesitancy. Most markets have reported seeing significant price rises on at least one of fuel, transportation and fertiliser, while some countries have already registered notable increases in annual inflation levels and, in turn, interest rates.
Amid this, the Southern Hemisphere’s 2026 harvests have finished and the new wines are starting to be sampled. This month’s Global Market Report relays the latest crop size estimates and vintage attributes. Of primary concern to producers, some of them possessing significant carryover inventory, is the market demand that awaits them in the next few weeks as their wines become available and pricing is established, as it will be a gauge of how active – or not – the 2026-vintage buying campaign may be. This month’s report sets out what activity has occurred.
The International Organisation of Vine & Wine (OIV), in its just-published ‘State of the World Wine Sector in 2025’ report, estimated last year’s global wine production at 227 million hectolitres, only 0.6% above a 2024 output that was the lowest recorded since at least 1961. The lighter crops of recent years have helped right-size some current-vintage inventories, in turn upping some grape and/or bulk wine prices over the past 12 months.
However, suppliers must bear in mind that global wine consumption continues to decline: the OIV also estimated that consumption in 2025 was down 2.7% versus 2024 and 14% smaller than in 2018. What have traditionally been the ten leading wine-drinking countries all experienced falls in 2025, with Portugal (+5.6%), a rare good-news market, breaking into the top ten ahead of Australia (-2.2%) and China (-13%). Pressure from retailers for supply is therefore weak. Furthermore, given their own cost pressures and their knowledge that wine stocks still outstrip demand, retailers/distributors are more price-sensitive than ever before. As this month’s Spain page states: “Suppliers will need to be mindful that, in a globally interconnected marketplace, buyers have alternative options and are becoming well-practised at using them.”
Excess supply has enabled some increased experimentation as the industry strives to better meet consumer tastes. This month’s report, for example, makes mention of the growth in low/no-alcohol wines and wine-based RTDs. However, the low/no category is growing from a very low level, while wine-based RTDs currently represent only a small fraction of an RTD category dominated by spirits and malt.
As well as taste, the industry must strive to meet consumer price preferences. In some markets consumers are currently getting an enhanced deal, with premium wines having been redirected into bulk and – at retail – the presence of price-aggressive private-label wines and discounted brands. These lower shelf prices, combined with reduced volumes, are potentially unsustainable for many wineries and – ultimately – growers. Delayed payments and vineyard mothballing/removals are currently widespread.
Read the full Ciatti Global Market Report for April
With its global reach and local connections, Ciatti’s experienced broker team is on hand to bring suppliers and buyers together in mutually beneficial partnerships. Don’t hesitate to reach out to us via info@ciatti.com or by clicking here for more contacts.
Vineyards advanced; grape and bulk markets stalled
The topsy-turvy start to the growing season in California continued through April into early May, with the first quarter’s unseasonably high temperatures giving way to some cooler than normal conditions and heavy rainfall in some areas. A lack of winter lows conducive to dormancy, followed by the changeable spring conditions as budburst, shoot growth and flowering moved underway, has led to highly variable vine development – sometimes on the same row or even the same vine, let alone between vineyards or areas.
This month’s report relays the latest observations on vineyard health, development and timing, and seeks to better define what is likely to be as important a factor in the 2026 harvest’s final size – farming minimally: What is the difference between mothballing a vineyard and resting it? If growers with uncontracted vines needed further incentive to ease up on farming this year, the Iran war has provided it: Fuel surcharges and, most of all, fertilizer and sulphur prices are on the rise.
Meanwhile, supply – or rather, holding excess supply – continues to be something universally feared on the bulk wine and grape markets, with buyers only making moves when certain of their requirements. As uncertainty pervades the industry, suffusing every consideration and action, this means slow bulk wine and grape markets moving forward only incrementally. This month’s report details the activity that has occurred and at what pricing, while updates from SipSource and Saxco set out the latest on US wholesaler depletion numbers and packaging trends respectively.
In recent months, Ciatti’s Global Market Report has been relaying how demand for current-vintage wines on the southern French bulk market was boosted by recent smaller harvests – owing to a state-subsidized uprooting program and, primarily, Mother Nature – and a distillation program removing older wines from the market. The free market has had a similar result in California as state intervention has in France: A smaller industry producing less. (On April 30th the CDFA’s California Grape Crush Final Report confirmed the state’s 2025 winegrape harvest at 2.626 million tons.) This month the California Report continues its series drilling down into the state’s bulk inventory by vintage year, this time surveying each of the main varietals.
Read the full Ciatti California Report for April
Bulk wine suppliers are invited to list their 2025 wines with us and send in samples, and ensure they have their 2024 wines on our inventory list, so we are able to harness buyer interest as it arises.
Grape growers are recommended to inform us of the grapes they may have available next year, in 2026, so we can work to match-up suppliers with buyers.
Please contact Mark (+1 415 630 2548 / mark@ciatti.com), Michael (+1 415 630 2541 / michael@ciatti.com) or the Ciatti Customer Account Team (cargroup@ciatti.com).
Listen now: Ciatti's Glenn Proctor speaks to Liquid Assets
Glenn Proctor, partner at the Ciatti Company, was a guest on Rabobank’s latest Liquid Assets podcast – titled “Will the US wine industry ever recover from the current glut?” – discussing the current and future state of the Californian wine industry with Jeff Bitter of Allied Grape Growers and podcast hosts Stephen Rannekleiv and Bourcard Nesin.
Glenn set out bulk-wine inventory levels as of the month of March 2026 and the 12 months to March (“it has been extremely high as to where we would usually sit”), delved down into bulk inventory by vintage year (“inventory isn’t going down but some of it is getting older, making it less marketable as you go into the future”), and outlined the tough realities of the current marketplace: “One of the biggest challenges we have: Those who’d be a buyer in a normal market are currently a seller, they’ve got grapes or bulk wine to sell.”
With Jeff, Glenn discussed the recently-published Preliminary Grape Crush Report and what it says about different regions and the progress of acreage rightsizing, whether or not resting/mothballing vineyards makes economic sense, if buyers are pulling back on contracted commitments at the expense of future stability, and when will the bulk-wine and grape markets noticeably improve: 2027?
You can listen to all 65 minutes of the Liquid Assets episode absolutely free, with no sign-up required, by clicking here .
Rising fuel prices compound market hesitancy
The sluggishness of activity on the bulk wine market globally since the turn of the year continued through March into early April, with hesitancy compounded by a rise in fuel prices – by approximately 30%+ in most countries – as a consequence of the conflict in the Middle East. Prices spiked amid the Southern Hemisphere harvests, directly impacting the picking of at least one: this month’s report provides the latest insights from the vineyards.
As this month’s California page states, the Iran war is likely to compound some pre-existing consumer pessimism, “with upward pressure on fuel costs exacerbating the reduced spending power consumers have possessed since the 2021-23 post-pandemic inflation spike. Unlike in previous eras when there has been economic misfortune, consumers are pessimistic about the long term – not just the short or medium term – and could curb spending accordingly”. Not what an industry going through a painful rightsizing process – and searching for a levelling-off in sales declines – needs.
Another issue common to nearly every producer country in this month’s report is abnormal weather: notable deluges occurred amid two country’s harvests in March; winter and early spring were very wet in Spain and southern France, with the Languedoc receiving more than 100% of its annual rainfall in the first quarter of the year; early spring has been unseasonably warm in California, where a number of veteran growers have reported that they have never before seen vine development so advanced at this stage. “Advanced” is the current viticultural buzzword, with a number of Southern Hemisphere harvests having conformed to that description.
The 2026 instalment of ProWein on 15-17th March hosted 31,000 visitors, down 25% from 42,000 in 2025, itself down from 47,000 in 2024. This visitor figure was well short of the 63,500 attendees at Wine Paris 2026 on 9-11th February, and the exhibitor number – 3,400 – was half that of Paris. The outbreak of the Iran war two weeks before ProWein will doubtless have dampened its numbers, but there is no denying Wine Paris is becoming the dominant wine show in Europe.
The Ciatti broker team found ProWein 2026 highly useful, and – for diary efficiency and longer, better-quality meetings – there is something to be said for a less populous show with fewer massive halls. But the proximity on the calendar of the two shows has always made it hard for non-European visitors to justify attending both, and with next year’s instalments separated by just three weeks, Paris is set to take further attendee and exhibitor numbers from Düsseldorf.
For the latest intel on each of the leading bulk wine markets, the Southern Hemisphere harvests, and spring conditions in the Northern Hemisphere, click on the button below to go through to the full Ciatti Global Market Report for April. The Global Pricing Grid, with all the latest pricing tables, will arrive into your email inbox soon.
Read the full Ciatti Global Market Report for April
With its global reach and local connections, Ciatti’s experienced broker team is on hand to bring suppliers and buyers together in mutually beneficial partnerships. Don’t hesitate to reach out to us via info@ciatti.com or by clicking here for more contacts.
Vibes more positive, not yet the hard facts and figures
An unseasonably warm start to spring in California has accelerated vine development in the growing areas to a marked extent: This month’s report relays the latest news from the vineyards – and how it may, or may not, affect the bulk wine and grape markets – and delves deep into the California Department of Food & Agriculture’s Preliminary Grape Crush Report for 2025, published last month.
The state’s smallest winegrape harvest in 26 years, combined with some improved mood music regarding case-good sales – if lacking hard figures to support it – has helped create a feeling that the wine industry is headed in the right direction. Before the sunlit uplands are reached, however, more painful rightsizing must occur, and we continue to see vineyards removed and mothballed, crush and storage capacity taken offline, and companies shrinking, merging, or shuttering altogether.
In the shorter term, it remains highly challenging to ascertain what the bulk wine and grape markets will do in the next 6-12 months. Given this, the hesitancy that has characterized buying behavior over the past three years remains rife. All purchase decisions are made deliberatively, with finances very much at the forefront of consideration. Even if they represent a significant, time-sensitive opportunity, and passing them up means paying more later on, wine and grape volumes are not getting harnessed when doing so cannot be squared with financial constraints. A credit crunch and cashflow shortage means a general disinclination to get involved on the market, and delays to payments on those deals that do occur.
In the meantime, the bulk inventory listed with us continues to build: This month’s report provides the latest on its size and content – with a focus on Cabernet, Pinot Noir and Zinfandel – and relays the bulk wine and grape activity that has been occurring. The report also carries updated SipSource data on US wholesaler depletions – the Middle East conflict is just the latest exterior factor the wine industry could do without as it strives to revive sales – and welcomes the American College of Cardiology’s recent reminder that moderate wine consumption can provide health benefits, for a long time a widespread and uncontroversial view until it became, in our words, “buried under increasingly shrill health messaging” in recent years.
Read the full Ciatti California Report for April
Bulk wine suppliers are invited to list their 2025 wines with us and send in samples, and ensure they have their 2024 wines on our inventory list, so we are able to harness buyer interest as it arises.
Grape growers are recommended to inform us of the grapes they may have available next year, in 2026, so we can work to match-up suppliers with buyers.
Please contact Mark (+1 415 630 2548 / mark@ciatti.com), Michael (+1 415 630 2541 / michael@ciatti.com) or the Ciatti Customer Account Team (cargroup@ciatti.com).
Recent-vintage stocks growing tighter
The 2026 harvests in the Southern Hemisphere are in full swing – a number are ahead of a typical schedule, in fact – and this month’s Global Market Report provides the latest on conditions, grape quality, and crop-size expectations.
With one exception, the bulk markets of the world have been quiet over the past month. The introduction to our March 2025 report applies again 12 months on: “The bulk market can be characterised as slow and steady since mid-February, with the Southern Hemisphere focused on harvest and demand in the Northern Hemisphere dampened by flat or declining retail sales and, in Spain, some elevated pricing.” Wary buyers are waiting to see how the harvests affect availability and pricing before committing, perhaps using the intervening time to take the industry pulse at shows like Wine Paris (growing in prominence; we review its recent instalment here) and ProWein, and generally try to gain a read on retail sales performances since the turn of the year.
The mood music on the US market is that easier comparisons with a very challenging 2025 create the opportunity for wine sales figures to stabilise, with 2026 potentially a “transitional moment” before performance improves later in the year or in early 2027. Only time will tell if this proves accurate and if it can also be said of Europe and beyond. Recent developments in the Middle East at the very least raise a serious question mark over this view, with the strong possibility of an energy price shock and logistics disruption leading to added inflationary pressure on consumers already possessing reduced purchasing power since the 2021-23 inflation surge.
If the severer economic consequences do not come to pass, and wine sales do concertedly start to stabilise in key markets, ongoing supply adjustments such as the current crisis distillation and uprooting schemes in France, green harvesting in Spain, and vineyard removals in California, could tip rightsizing into overcorrection as 2026 turns to 2027. “Undersupply” is not a word that has featured much in our reports in recent years – and as the France page states this month, “the market is not there yet” – but some current/recent-vintage wine stocks in some supplier countries are becoming tight.
Click on the button below to go through to the full Ciatti Global Market Report for March. The Global Pricing Grid, with all the latest pricing tables, will arrive into your email inbox soon.
Read the full Ciatti Global Market Report for March
Ciatti at ProWein
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California’s smallest winegrape crush since 1999
March 13, 2026 — The California Department of Food & Agriculture’s Preliminary Grape Crush Report for 2025 was released today, March 13th. The winegrape crush of 2,623,443 tons was down 8.4% versus 2.866 million tons in 2024 and the smallest since 2.617 million tons in 1999, but above the Ciatti Company’s guesstimate of 2.4 million tons.
The final tonnage, although lighter than 2024, was perhaps slightly higher than many expected. This may be an indication that yields were larger than anticipated, as there was a significant portion of unpicked grapes.
Some observations:
- The harvest in District 4 (Napa) was down overall by 2.2%, with Cabernet Sauvignon down slightly by 1.4%.
- Cabernet production was down 4.8%, with a total of 432,666 tons in 2025 versus 454,606 tons in 2024.
- Chardonnay production was down 7%, totaling 491,036 tons versus 527,798 tons in 2024.
- Pinot Noir production was down 12.9%, totaling 189,842 tons versus 218,022 tons in 2024.
- Pinot Grigio (+4.2% to 198,619 tons) and Sauvignon Blanc (+16.1% to 160,962 tons) were the only major varieties to see larger production than in 2024.
- The harvest in District 8, Santa Barbara/San Luis Obispo counties (which includes Paso Robles), was up 4.5%, largely due to Cabernet Sauvignon increasing 12.7% from 2024.
- In the Interior, the harvest in Lodi District 11 was down overall by 11.2%.
The full preliminary crush report can be found here.
The Ciatti California Report for April will dive deeper into the results. Our March report can be found here.